US elections 2008

Professor sees nomination reform ahead

by Barbara Giudice

Article published on the 2008-04-29 Latest update 2008-10-21 13:37 TU

Bruce Cain

The Democratic Party battle for the presidential nomination raged on until the last primary was over in early June.  But the entire primary/caucus calendar seems to be under criticism this year.  Bruce Cain, professor of political science at the University of California at Berkeley, says that once the dust has settled, reform is on the agenda. 

The caucus/primary season this year went from January through 3 June.

Since the states which hold their primaries  first get special attention from the candidates, out of proportion to their voting size, there is a race to be the first to hold the ballot. The Democratic National Committee decided to punish Michigan and Florida for jumping the gun this year.

Cain says that there is a growing unease with the system as it now stands.  He predicts that in the new year there will be attempts to reform the system to stop states from moving their primaries earlier and earlier in order to be first.

"What hurts ....is that Iowa and New Hampshire are bound and determined to be number one," he says. "So, every time the states move up and challenge Iowa and New Hampshire, they threaten to start the [primary season] even earlier. And there was some talk of ... starting in November, the year before the election year. So that chaos has to end. We can't have this mad rush of all the states to the front of the line."

Cain says that the the Democrats will be looking into ways to change the system of superdelegates. 

"There are a lot of people who think it is not a wise idea to have the nomination in the hands of party and elected officials and unmoored to anything that happens in the primaries and caucuses," he says. "So I suspect there will be a lot of discussion about changing that."

On the Republican side the nomination was sewn up by March, when John McCain obtained 1,191 in a first-past-the-post voting system.  But on the Democratic side voting on a proportional basis rendered the results between two strong candidates less clear for a much longer time. 

Cain says one should not underestimate real divisions within the Democratic Party on the basis of education, age, race, occupation and religion.  But he says the party's rules contribute to the divisiveness. 

"For the Democratic Party the proportional rules are an extension of their culture, that is, they are the party of fairness and they want their rules to be fair," Cain says. "And similarly for the Republican Party, the winner-take-all fits their culture, which is they're the party of decisions and decisiveness and they don't want to mess around with messy primaries that could put them at a disadvantage politically and in terms of fundraising."