US elections 2008

Obama poised on the verge of victory

Article published on the 2008-06-03 Latest update 2008-06-03 15:08 TU

Barack Obama in Michigan, 2 June 2008
(Photo: Reuters)

US Senator Barack Obama could become the Democratic Party’s candidate for president as early as Tuesday evening, as voters headed to the polls in the two final primary contests in Montana and South Dakota. While the results from these contests cannot tip the scales alone, speculation is rampant that either Obama will declare victory or Hillary Clinton will cede defeat after the results are in.

Montana’s 16 and South Dakota’s 15 delegates are not sufficient to push Obama’s total delegates to over the crucial 2,118 mark, but many Democratic Party figures who have votes as superdelegates are expected to declare their support for Obama once the final primary results are in. The only question is whether there will be enough superdelegates to clinch a majority for Obama.

"There are a lot of superdelegates who are waiting for the last couple of contests, but I think that they are going to be making decisions fairly quickly after that," Obama told the press while campaigning in Michigan. "My sense is that between Tuesday and Wednesday, that we've got a good chance of getting the number that we need to win the nomination."

The New York Times puts Obama’s current support at 2,073, meaning that he will need a combined 45 delegates from the primaries and superdelegate pledges. The Washington Post reports that the Obama campaign expects 20 delegates from the primaries and has already secured 10 superdelegates, all but tying up the votes he needs for a majority.

But the Clinton campaign – at least officially – has no plans to throw in the towel. Clinton plans to try to woo undeclared superdelegates, making the case that her recent string of victories makes her the stronger candidate in the fall. "I will be spending the coming days making my case to those delegates," she said on Monday.

Clinton is headed to a Tuesday night rally in New York, which is both her home state and an appropriate setting for a concession speech, though the campaign is circulating rumours that she will simply “suspend” her campaign to give her time to make a decision about her future.

Meanwhile, Obama will hold his rally in another symbolic location: St. Paul, Minnesota, the location of the Republican Party’s convention in September.