Article published on the 2008-06-03 Latest update 2008-06-03 17:28 TU
(Left to right) Afghan President Hamid Karzai, outgoing General Dan McNeil, German general Eggon Ramms and US general David McKiernan.
(Photo : Reuters)
The Afghan National Army – non-existent after the fall of the Taliban – doubled under McNeill’s term to 58,000, supported by 70,000 police with lesser training.
However, McNeill’s 16 month tenure was also marked by a strong upsurge in violence in Afghanistan, leaving 8,000 people dead in 2007 alone. The Taliban-led insurgency is now said to include al-Qaeda and other extremist elements.
McKiernan will have his work cut out for him, and may have to change his goals if he is looking to succeed, Etienne de Durand, a security analyst at the French Institute of International Relations in Paris told RFI. “It all depends on how one defines success. If we are trying to establish democracy in Afghanistan in five years, then no, we cannot win. That’s quite clear. But if we are able to define clear objectives, less ambitious objectives … then yes, it’s probably possible to achieve some modicum of success,” Durand said.
“Militarily speaking it’s impossible to defeat an insurgency that has sanctuaries across a border [in Pakistan].” Durand explained. “It’s widely believed that at least some elements of the Pakistani state – and especially the ISI, their secret services help the Taliban. So in that respect, it’s not possible to defeat the insurgency militarily; it’s possible to contain the insurgency and improve the economic situation for the Afghan population.”
Meanwhile on Tuesday, two ISAF soldiers were killed when a roadside bomb exploded in the eastern province of Paktia. 70 foreign soldiers have lost their lives in 2008.
The NATO-run ISAF now numbers some 52,000 troops from 40 nations, almost half of whom come from the United States.