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Rolland Garros 2009
Who will win Roland Garros 2009?
by Paul Myers
Article published on the 2009-05-24 Latest update 2009-05-24 14:43 TU
Rafael Nadal practices at Roland Garros stadium, 22 May 2009
(Photo: Reuters)
Banking empires have collapsed and multi-national companies have been brought to their knees, but as the global economic meltdown leads us into the dark recesses of Armageddon, Rafael Nadal remains a shining beacon of certainty. There is less certainty in the women's draw.
The Spaniard comes to Roland Garros 2009 as master of all he surveys. Anointed world number one last autumn, he started this year by winning the Australian Open. He beat Roger Federer in five sets just like he’d done at Wimbledon the previous July.
It was Nadal’s first grand slam as world number one. He’d won his four titles in Paris when he was playing second fiddle in the rankings to Federer. But then, he has always been the Swiss’s master on clay.
On 17 May, Federer beat Nadal on clay in the final of the Madrid Masters. It was the Spaniard’s first defeat on the surface in more than a year. It was Federer’s first title in seven months.
But to matters French: Nadal is looking for his fifth straight win in Paris. If he manages it, he would be the first man to do so since tennis went professional in the late 1960s.
And if he achieves such a feat during a time of the sport’s putative greatest player, well that would only magnify the wonder.
Federer is coming up for 28, and he says he’s looking to play for at least another five years. He and his wife, Mirka, are expecting their first baby this summer, and Federer says he wants his offspring to see him play. A fine gust of paternal pride that may well be but the signs are that the former world number one is in the hinterland of his pomp.
The circumstances of his demise make lurid reading for such a proud champion. Until his victory in Madrid he had won only three matches in 15 against the top four men. It was his first win in five attempts over Nadal.
Federer will be looking to add the only grand slam absent from his collection of 13 titles. But his gruesome battering in the 2008 Roland Garros final, and his poor overall record against Nadal suggests that Paris will never be a happy hunting ground for him.
The Serbian fourth seed Novak Djokovic might give Nadal more of a battle though. In many ways Djokovic was responsible for Federer’s victory in Madrid. Nadal and Djokovic were on court for four hours in the semi final at Madrid. Indeed, Nadal saved three match points before prevailing.
But even his famed powers of regeneration couldn’t help him 24 hours later against Federer. And it has to be stated that Federer’s victory in the Spanish capital was by the slenderest of margins.
Last year the semi-final at Roland Garros between the Serb and the Spaniard never lived up to its billing until the third set tie breaker by which time Djokovic was doing too much too late.
Djokovic who claimed the 2008 Australian Open is the only player in the top ten who has the experience of winning a slam. Such has been the Nadal-Federer duopoly that since Gaston Gaudio won Roland Garros in 2004, 16 of the last 17 grand slams have gone to the Swiss or the Spaniard. Nadal’s dominance in Paris allied to Federer's paws over everything else at Wimbledon, the Australian and the US Open.
Britain’s Andy Murray - at world number three - is seeded third, but it’s a position that belies his clay court guile. The 22-year-old is learning to graft on “the dirt” as the players so charmingly call it, and he has the game and the guts to outwit any player.
Nadal has identified Murray as an eventual contender for the Coupe des Mousquetaires at Roland Garros but he’ll know in his heart of hearts that it’s still too soon for Murray. A trip into the second week would be a good tournament for the Brit.
While you wouldn’t be deemed unwise to wager your house on another Nadal conquest, where do you place your bets in the women’s draw?
The reigning champion Ana Ivanovic has gone from crisis to injury to loss of form. She is seeded eighth this year, and it would be a sad reflection on the depth of the women’s game if she were to be around at the business end of the event. Ironically Dinara Safina, the woman she beat in the 2008 final, returns as a genuine contender for the crown.
The 23-year-old Muscovite was anointed world number one at the beginning of the month and her confidence should be booming after winning on the clay at the Italian Open and in Madrid.
Serena Williams, whom Safina displaced as world number one, is the second seed and looking for another Roland Garros title to add to the one she claimed in 2002 at the expense of her elder sister Venus.
Serena has been plagued with knee problems in the prelude to the event but she is the ultimate big tournament competitor. She famously won the Australian Open in 2007 after coming back from injury. It not only confounded the sceptics but added to the aura of invincibility.
Serena can only meet her third seeded big sister in the final. But with Venus’s second round showing last year and no progress as far as the last eight since 2006, it would be a risky venture to predict an all Williams showdown on Saturday, 6 June.
But at least the women’s draw permits room for speculation. Expect the men’s crown to continue its residence in Spain.
