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Africa Cup of Nations - blog
Expect more shocks after Sunday's surprises
by Paul Myers
Article published on the 2010-01-25 Latest update 2010-01-25 15:28 TU
A Ghana soccer fan cheers during their quarter-final against Angola
(Photo: Reuters)
Years ago in Britain there was a Saturday morning show called Saint and Greavesie. The main men were the former football stars Ian St John and Jimmy Greaves.
To a certain extent the programme launched the intellectualisation of football. Of course there had been other TV magazines such as On The Ball.
But that was usually just a look at the games coming up on Saturday afternoon with rather stolid interviews with a player or a manager.
Saint was the besuited straight man to Greavesie’s open-necked cheeky chappie. And these ex-pros would give insights in the way only brilliant former players can.
There’d be no reason for some of their statements. Greavesie would say things like, "I can feel the win coming Saint." And, sure enough, some team on an appalling run would beat the putative better side.
Or Saint would comment, "I’ve been watching the lad … he just needs a couple more games and he’ll be fine."
A couple of weeks later the player who’d had a question mark hanging over him would be performing brilliantly.
One of Greavesie’s most homely flourishes was, "It’s a funny old game." As Homer Simpson says, "It’s so true."
But then you don’t need to be an ex-footballing wizard with a drink problem à la Greavesie to embrace that.
Angola should not have lost to an inexperienced Ghana side on Sunday afternoon and Côte d’Ivoire should have turned over Algeria on Sunday evening.
Neither of the stronger sides won. Côte d’Ivoire were denied a legitimate equaliser in stoppage time. But their defending was lacking on two occasions. Angola’s finishing was profligate. Manucho was particularly woeful.
Perhaps in a game with lesser stakes Manucho would have buried his chances. Maybe in another match the Ivorian defenders would have been more vigilant.
But here’s a twist: Côte d’Ivoire played Ghana on 15 January. They beat them 3-1 and qualified from Group B with four points. They didn’t play the third match because of Togo’s withdrawal from the competition.
Algeria meanwhile played all three Group A games. Following their 3-0 humiliation at the hands of Malawi, Algeria had to play two high-stakes matches to get to the last eight.
Perhaps their players were battle-hardened and, thanks to a poor decision, lucky.
Oh, to be fortune’s strumpet! The Cameroon coach Paul Le Guen told me after their Group D win against Zambia that luck is often the most important factor for success in these kind of tournaments.
So all those hours of running, practice and tactics count for what Effectively they furnish you with the skill to slam the ball home after a ricochet into your path.
So I’m going to rip up the form book and just count on gut instinct for my soothsaying. Have to admit I got it wrong with Angola and Côte d’Ivoire. So ... to my new approach.
Zambia v Nigeria and Egypt v Cameroon?
Cameroon and Nigeria to advance. Why? Because Egypt should win. They’re the defending champions; they’re unbeaten so far in the competition.
With Algeria through to the semi-finals, Egypt desperately want to get there to play them so they can avenge their defeat in the World Cup qualifiers.
Egypt beat Cameroon regularly. They outclassed them in the 2008 final and they’re also going for an unprecedented hat trick of titles. This, my gut tells me, is too much.
Cameroon have been lucky so far and at some point they have to be good. They’re not Africa’s top-placed team in the Fifa world rankings without a reason
Nigeria are physically strong and efficent. The fleet-footed Zambians will flitter to deceive. It’s just too big a game for many of their team. And, though the pressure is on Nigeria, their game of slow construction will just roll for them in the end.
I’ll be co-commentating on that match with Eric Mamruth from the French service. I have a phrase in mind.
And no it’s not "malade comme un perroquet".
